ROI – Return on Investment

This article addresses the return on money you invest in sports betting and what can expect at various winning percentages. Ever wonder how to calculate your return? What can you realistically expect at various winning percentages? Read on…

This article assumes the “investment” we are speaking of is the money you set aside to risk in sports betting (i.e. you bankroll). For example, you might start the year with a bankroll of $10,000. This is money you have set aside to invest during the year (or the season) on sports bets.

The “return” is the net winnings or losses based on that investment. I call this the Return on Bankroll (ROB). We can look at historical average returns for common stocks as a reasonable benchmark. Warren Buffet says stock market investors should expect a 6%-7% return every year.

Now what about sports betting? Return on Bankroll is calculated simply by taking the net winnings (or losses) and dividing by the amount set aside to invest for the period (i.e. your starting bankroll). So, if were to turn a $10,000 bankroll into $10,700 by betting on sports over the course of a year, then we would match the historic stock market return of 7%. In this case, our Return would be 7%.

Our ending net winnings or losses will be based on all of the bets placed over the course the season (or year). A realistic expected win rate over the course of an entire year is probably in the 50%-54% range. With a 10% vigorish (i.e. risking $11 to win $10) as profit for the sportsbook, you need to hit 52.38% to break exactly even – a Return of 0%. Let’s assume 3,500 bets over the course of a year. Here’s the Return on Bankroll at various win rates assuming a 10% vigorish, risking 1.5% of our bankroll per bet: